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| From Promise to Proof Happy New Year and welcome to 2026!
In last week's newsletter, we took a look back at how AI evolved in 2025: the breakthroughs, the implementation challenges, and the expensive lessons learned.
This week, we're looking ahead at expert and industry predictions for 2026, and the drumbeat is clear: hype is giving way to evaluation. We're past the point of asking what AI might do. The question now is what it can actually do, and how organizations can unlock that value.
Stanford researchers, organizational experts, and industry leaders share a common insight: success in 2026 depends on cultural readiness, trust architecture, and acknowledging AI's jagged limitations more than raw computing power. Building frameworks to support change while realizing that humans are still essential will separate successful adoption from expensive experimentation. | The era of AI hype is ending as Stanford researchers predict 2026 will demand rigorous evaluation, measurable ROI, and real-world utility over roadmaps and promise. | 95% of generative AI initiatives fail not from technical limitations but from cultural misalignment, and the organizations winning treat AI as transformation leveraging change management techniques. | AI has a "Jagged Frontier" where it's superhuman at some tasks yet fails at others, creating bottlenecks. When fixed, sudden surges emerge like Google's image breakthrough enabling AI-created presentations. |
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| Stanford faculty across disciplines converge on a central theme for 2026: artificial intelligence will face serious evaluation after years of rapid expansion. The shift will be visible across sectors. Economists expect real-time dashboards tracking productivity gains and worker displacement. Legal experts predict the conversation will move from "Can it write?" to "How well, on what, and at what risk?". And medical researchers see AI approaching a breakthrough moment as self-supervised learning reaches healthcare. One prediction states plainly: "There will be no AGI this year," and more companies are acknowledging AI hasn't yet shown productivity increases except in programming and call centers. However, we will continue to see massive infrastructure investments in AI, in the US and abroad. The emerging (or rather continuing) reality is that AI is fantastic for some tasks, problematic for others. And perhaps most importantly, researchers describe an "absolute mandate to open AI's black box." Key Insight: The coming year, not unlike 2025, will continue to transition AI from speculation to scrutiny. After massive investments and expansive promises, in 2026, the emphasis shifts to proving utility rather than asserting capability. |
Artificial intelligence will transcend isolated lab projects and align with organizational culture and human development. We will see the emergence of "human-scale" AI integrated into corporate culture rather than massive "death star" projects that threaten job security. An MIT study shows 95% of generative AI initiatives fall short of expectations due to poor alignment between technology and culture. Building frameworks for human-AI collaboration matters more than deploying better models. Strategic Takeaway: Redesign workflows around AI collaboration and build teams with AI fluency. The 95% failure rate? Treating AI as software deployment without tending to organizational change. View Article → Mollick's research explains AI's unpredictability: tiny weaknesses create massive bottlenecks that block automation even when AI is superhuman at 99% of a task. For example, AI reproduced 12 work-years of medical research in two days with better accuracy than humans, but couldn't email authors for missing data. When AI labs identify these bottlenecks, they concentrate resources to fix them, creating sudden capability surges like Google's image generation breakthrough that unlocked publication-quality presentations. The Practical Angle: Jaggedness creates sustained competitive advantage for organizations that identify where human judgment complements AI capabilities, but don't assume AI limitations are permanent. View Article → | Quick Hits2026: The year AI should become invisible Brands embedding AI seamlessly, making it feel natural and brand-aligned, will outperform those marketing it as a feature. With 61% wanting to turn AI off, the best approach anticipates needs without demanding attention for the technology itself. | 2026: The year of the AI agent Microsoft predicts that AI will take the role of a digital colleague working independently across systems, breaking down silos. Success requires treating AI like staff: clear expectations, behavioral boundaries, and business leaders managing their real-world impact. | 2026: The year of anti-AI marketing CNN predicts 2026 will bring "100% human" marketing as consumers rebel, preferring authenticity over automation. iHeartMedia found 90% of listeners want human-created content. Companies are adopting no-AI policies, while Pinterest faces user backlash for AI embrace. |
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| Industry DevelopmentsGoogle to launch AI smart glasses in 2026 Google is partnering with Samsung, Gentle Monster, and Warby Parker to launch AI-powered glasses, competing with Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses. Two types planned: screen-free with speakers for ambient assistance, and display glasses with in-lens navigation. | Launch of AI tool for early dementia detection in 2026 Samsung unveils Brain Health at CES 2026, using AI to analyze voice patterns, gait, and sleep data from wearables for early dementia detection. Processing locally via Knox security, the move could force competitors like Apple and Google to accelerate cognitive health features. |
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